Sam and Shauna are on the Saturday as well as the Sunday featuring their low ’n’ slow American Southern-style cooking for two consecutive days - which just goes to show how popular these festival favourites are. More barbecued meat is on the cards as you will be treated to Genevieve Taylor, a live fire cook and author, whose recipes from her new book Seared, The Ultimate Guide to Barbecuing Meat, will feature alongside plenty of talk about the physics of fire. Cookery titles published by Robinson include Cook This Book by Molly Baz, The Seasonal Baker by Michelle Evans-Fecci, Taste Kitchen: Asia by Philli Armitage-Mattin, The Green Batch Cook Book by Sam Gates; specialist medicinal cookery titles such as Donna Crous’s A Healthier Family for Life; and cooking appliance recipes books The Everyday Family Air Fryer Cookbook and Comfort Food From Your Slow Cooker. Don’t rely solely on the food holidays listed above. If you know of a regional, religious, or another holiday in your area that isn’t listed, be sure to celebrate it! How will you use this holiday planning list?

Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current

Cardiff's very own Owen Morgan of Bar 44 will showcase some of the recipes and stories from his and his brother Tom's new cookbook Tapas y Copas. It comes 20 years after they opened of their first tapas bar in Cowbridge.Michelle grew up on a farm in Bronwydd, near Carmarthen, cooking, baking and gardening by the side of her Mam. With the bus station only a five-minute walk from the festival entrance, it's the perfect way to get there. By train, the station is also just a short walk from the festival and has regular train services. May is another huge month for bakers because we have graduations, wedding season beginning, Mother’s Day, teachers’ appreciation, recitals, and extracurricular activities with the school year wrapping up. Proms happen in May as well as first communions and Memorial Day weekend There are many things to celebrate in April including administrative professional stay, the Master’s golf tournament, Easter and Earth Day, as well as Major League Baseball and promposals!

The Seasonal Baker: Easy Recipes from My Home Kitchen to Make

We consider the implications of our estimated climate effect for four locations in our dataset with exemplar dynamic patterns and timing of epidemic onset (Fig. 2b, c). In Fig. 2d we show the seasonal trajectories for these locations, with the mean monthly rainfall and humidity overlaid on our predicted transmission effect. Hennepin County, MN, an example of a location with biennial outbreaks, has large changes in predicted transmission over the course of the year, with maximum transmission in the winter months (Fig. 2c) when peak incidence also occurs (Fig. 2b). Kings County, NY, an example of a location with annual outbreaks, has a wintertime peak in predicted transmission driven by declining humidity, though not to the same extent as the biennial test case. In contrast, our model predicts that Miami-Dade County, FL, an example of a shallow-trough location, experiences peak transmission in the summer months driven by summertime rainfall. The dominance of the rainfall effect means that Miami experiences an increase in cases even as humidity increases, a reversal of the patterns observed over most US counties (Fig. 2b), which explains the early onset of the epidemic in this location. In November you can focus your sales around election Day, Veteran Day, and Thanksgiving! Don’t forget that Thanksgiving celebrations are more than just on the day itself, office celebrations and Friendsgiving often take place the week before. November also marks the beginning of the advent calendar as well as the elf on the shelf. Be sure to include the wedding and graduation season as well as other busy times in your bakery holiday calendar The US county-level RSV dataset comes from hospitalizations data originally obtained from the State Inpatient Databases (SIDs) of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) maintained by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). HCUP SIDs data represents on average 96% of community hospital inpatient discharges for reporting states, though not all states participate in data collection. There are some fluctuations in the number of community hospitals reporting over time, depending on the state. The standard deviation in percentage reporting in 2% on average. Hospitalization records that included the International Classification of Diseases 9th revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code for RSV (079.6, 466.11, 480.1) within the 15 discharge diagnoses were included. Hospitalization data were made available at the weekly level. Hospitalization data are available from 1989, however, a change in reporting codes in 1996 results in a large increase in cases at this time. To avoid potential bias from the switch in reporting, we take all county-level observations from 1997 onward. The longest time series spans 1997–2011. We remove counties with very sparse observations (max incidence <10 cases) and we also remove series of zero observations from the start of the time series. We remove any counties that have <5 years of consecutive observations due to potential erroneous model-fitting over this shorter time series, though these counties are retained when plotting spatial averages. Red Sauce Brown Sauce author and expert How to Make the Perfect… Guardian food columnist Felicity Cloake will be offering breakfast tips.County-level data in the United States are noisier than state-level averages used in ref. 27, however, they provide some advantages. For instance, state-level time series for California show a dynamic transition from biennial outbreaks to annual outbreaks in 1999. At the county level we observe biennial cycles persisting from 1999 onward in California but with northern counties and southern counties out-of-phase (Supplementary Fig. 4). This suggests that using county-level data may provide a more accurate picture of location-specific dynamics. Definitions Beat the butter, sugar, vanilla and eggs together, then add the flour and mixed spice and thoroughly mix. Add the fruits and any liquid from the bowl, mix in the chopped nuts then divide equally between the two tins. Level the tops with a spatula and bake for 1½ hours. State-level Mexico hospitalization data come from the Subsistema Automatizado de Egresos Hospitalarios (SAEH) collected by the Sistema Nacional de Información en Salud (SINAIS) and overseen by Secretaría de Salud. We take data from all cases of bronchiolitis (ICD-10 codes J21.0, J21.1, J21.8, J21.9), a serious respiratory tract infection primarily caused by RSV 38 (Supplementary Table 8). Data were summed over the week to match the US data and reflect the generation time of RSV. Mexico data cover all years from 2000 to 2014. Wander around the market stalls - while marvelling at the stunning artistic hanging decor by Bettina Reeves and her team - offering produce and freshly-prepared food before settling down in the castle grounds to re-energise. There's even music and educational sessions taking place in the likes of the 'Local & Vocal Tent' and 'Ogi Dome' in the Castle. I always thought it would be lovely to write my own cookery book, but I never thought I would get the opportunity,” she said.

Seasonal Data - The R Journal Analysing Seasonal Data - The R Journal

The team behind one of Wales' top 10 restaurants Cora, Lee Skeet and Lily Griffiths, shows festival go-ers why their small but mighty 12-seater restaurant is worth the tasty trip. While individual CMIP5 models are consistent in projecting increasing surface air temperature and hence specific humidity, there is significant disagreement across models with regard to future changes to regional precipitation 34. Given that precipitation is found to be an important driver of RSV, particularly in tropical locations, we explore the implications of the model range in precipitation projections for future RSV epidemic dynamics. In Fig. 3b we show simulations of the RSV cycle for three locations in Mexico where transmission is driven by humidity, fixed at the 2100 CMIP5 multi-model-mean and precipitation, based on trajectories from all 23 CMIP5 models (three models did not include explicit precipitation projections and are removed). The upper 90th percentile, the 50th percentile, and the lower 10th percentile, in terms of the amplitude of RSV transmission predicted by the model, are highlighted within the figure. Many Mexican states show a similar result to Miami. However, for some states such as Sinaloa our model predicts two optimal times for transmission within a year, one driven by low humidity and the other driven by increasing rainfall. These two peaks are visible in the Sinaloa incidence time series (Fig. 1c). While such patterns have been previously observed in both RSV and influenza time series in tropical countries 9, 23, our results provide evidence for the climatic variation driving these observed dynamics. Across the dataset we find that locations with biennial dynamics experienced larger seasonal changes in predicted transmission than locations with shallow-trough dynamics (Fig. 2e) as suggested by earlier work 27. Future climate When you plan your seasons ahead of time, you can decide exactly how many posts you want, and pre-design your posts so that you can still show up, even when you are busy baking. Almost every holiday has special food associated with itThere are a whole host of big names in food making an appearance and doing what they do best at the festival this year: cook. Here is a run down of who will be making some tasty grub across the weekend, where and the days and times they will be doing it. Here you'll find all the hot live cooking demonstrations from the likes of Welsh tapas aficianado Owen Morgan and Halen Môn, as well as smoked fish, Wales' oldest Caerphilly cheese, craft gin, preserves, cured meats, seeds and more. Understanding the climate drivers of infectious diseases has clear public health implications, often delineating our ability to predict the timing, location and magnitude of outbreaks both currently and in the future as the climate changes 1. Important steps have been taken to decompose the climatic drivers of vector-borne 2 and waterborne diseases 3, 4, and to develop projections for the future burden and geographical range of pathogens across climate change scenarios 5. Less attention has been paid to directly-transmitted infections, despite key work on influenza demonstrating the significant role climatic variables can play in driving the transmission of these types of infections. Experimental studies show that influenza transmission increases in conditions of low humidity 6, 7, 8. Observational studies in temperate climates support this finding; while in tropical locations, influenza peaks have been observed to occur in the rainy season when humidity increases 9, 10. The rapid evolution of the seasonal influenza virus and the consequent complexity of dynamics makes projections of future epidemics difficult 11, 12. In contrast, many major childhood infections exhibit more regular dynamics, making the long-term consequences of environmental drivers easier to dissect 13, 14, 15, 16.

How to make the ultimate Christmas cake | Hachette UK

Sitting down to write your seasonal plans down will help you to think clearly about when you want to offer sales and which holidays to skip. Use holidays and themes as part of your content strategy How far in advance have you been promoting your sales? If you’re like many bakers, it’s a few posts about a week before your sale, and then you’re so busy baking that you can’t manage to create additional posts and promotions. June marks the official beginning of Summer and can include themes for summer sports like camping, fishing, and swimming! Father’s Day is in June, as is Flag Day. guests' favorite recipes this holiday season. You'll make the cakes that make people's day, so you'll get to Former Bake Off contestant Michelle was known on the show for her flavoursome, colourful bakes and for championing seasonal, locally sourced and homegrown produce. Whether it's a simple loaf for breakfast or a striking showstopper cake for a celebration, she loves using seasonal food to create tasty recipes for the whole family to enjoy.Wahahca founder Thomasina Miers dives into some of the recipes of her new cookbook, Meat Free Mexican, which is a celebration of vegetable and plant-based living. Introducing what you can expect to experience at the festival itself, the festival says: "Fish 'n' chips or Tibetan dumplings? Gower Cottage Brownies or edible flowers? Seaweed rum or seeds for your garden? The Festival weekend is all about sensory extremes and subtle contrasts; an explosion of chilli, a long cold beer. Share amazing food with family and friends and celebrate our creative and spirited food community...."